Diplomats or Dead Ends? Rebel Diplomacy, Survival, and Success in Civil Wars
Tests whether diplomatic engagement extends rebel groups' organizational lifespan or accelerates their collapse, using a global dataset of armed non-state actors.
Quantitative Researcher · Crisis Analyst · Political Scientist
A quantitative MENA researcher studying conflict, crisis, & humanitarian response.
I'm a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at Western University and a quantitative MENA researcher, working as a crisis analyst with Mercy Corps. My research uses survey experiments, statistical modeling, and field research in Yemen and Lebanon to understand civil war, rebel diplomacy, and the humanitarian consequences of conflict across the Middle East and North Africa.
§ 01 Aboutنبذة
A crisis analyst and quantitative researcher working where evidence meets humanitarian practice.
Currently: Crisis Analyst at Mercy Corps and Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at Western University.
Hayl Al-Salehi is a crisis analyst, humanitarian researcher, and quantitative MENA researcher based at Western University in London, Ontario. Since 2020 he has worked as a Crisis Analyst with Mercy Corps, producing conflict analysis and early-warning research that informs humanitarian programming in Yemen and across the Middle East and North Africa.
As a quantitative researcher, Hayl works in R, Python, and Stata, applying survey experiments, statistical modeling, and geospatial analysis to questions of civil war, political violence, and post-conflict reintegration. His doctoral research examines rebel diplomacy — when and why armed non-state actors pursue negotiation rather than escalation — combining global conflict datasets with a two-country survey experiment.
His humanitarian and policy work spans roles at Mercy Corps, the Yemen Policy Center, and the Center for Information Resilience, with field research conducted in Yemen and Lebanon. A native Arabic speaker, he supports humanitarian organizations, think tanks, and media with crisis analysis, Yemen and MENA political analysis, and evidence for program design in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
Hayl is available for collaboration, consultation, and commentary as a crisis analyst, humanitarian researcher, and quantitative MENA analyst — including short-term engagements with NGOs, policy organizations, and academic teams.
§ 02 Researchالبحث
A dissertation in three papers, plus collaborative work on political violence, the Yemen conflict, and authoritarian politics across the MENA region.
Below: the three papers that make up the dissertation. A full publications list, including peer-reviewed work and earlier collaborations, is on the CV.
When Do Rebels Build Embassies?
Examines how organizational capacity and external support shape the choice between diplomacy and military escalation among insurgent groups.
Talking to Rebels? Public Attitudes Toward Rebel Diplomacy
A two-country survey experiment in the United States and Nigeria measuring how citizens evaluate negotiations with armed non-state actors.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
2023
Roskoschinski, A., Liang, W., Duan, Y., Al-Salehi, H., Lippke, S., & Welsh, B. Loneliness and depression in older adults with multimorbidity: the role of self-efficacy and social support. Frontiers in Psychiatry.
Equal authorship · doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1232067
Working Papers & In Progress
IN PROGRESS
“Diplomats or Dead Ends? Rebel Diplomacy, Survival, and Success in Civil Wars.”
In progress
“When Do Rebels Build Embassies? Organizational Capacity, External Support, and the Choice Between Diplomacy and Military Escalation.”
With Blair Welsh
In progress
“Talking to Rebels? Public Attitudes Toward Rebel Diplomacy in the United States and Nigeria.”
In progress
“Thresholds of Resistance: Repression and the Moral Economy of Violence in Tunisia and Morocco.”
With Blair Welsh
In progress
“Repatriation and Reconciliation in Comparison: Former ISIS Collaborators in the Middle East and North Africa.”
With Mirna El Masri and others
§ 03 Teachingالتدريس
Graduate teaching assistantships in international relations and research methods.
University of Western Ontario · Department of Political Science.
Fall 2026
Public Administration — TA, Dr. Joseph Lyons
Undergraduate
Winter 2026
Foundations of International Relations — TA, Dr. Adam Harmes
Undergraduate
Fall 2025
International Law and Order — TA, Dr. Blair Welsh
Undergraduate
Winter 2025
Foundations of International Relations — TA, Dr. Adam Harmes
Undergraduate
Fall 2024
Research Design in Political Science — TA, Alvaro J. Pereira Filho
Undergraduate
§ 04 Fundingالتمويل
Grants, scholarships, and awards supporting research and graduate study.
Selected funding to date — over $370,000 across grants, fellowships, and travel awards.
Grants & Fellowships
2023 — 2027
Doctoral Funding Package — Western University
$80,000
2019 — 2021
Tomorrow Leaders Graduate Scholarship — MEPI
$100,000
2015 — 2019
Tomorrow Leaders Undergraduate Scholarship — MEPI
$120,000
2023 — 2027
Equity & Diversity Social Science Doctoral Fellowship — Western
$20,000
2024 — 2027
Faculty Research Development Grant — Western
$8,000
2012 — 2014
Youth Exchange and Study Scholarship — US Dept of State
$30,000
2022
MEPI Grant for Professional Development — US Dept of State
$5,000
Awards & Travel
2026
Travel Grant — Western University
$1,000
2025
Departmental Grant — Western University
$7,000
2025
Travel Grant — American Political Science Association
$800
2019 — 2021
Certificate of Excellence in Volunteerism — MEPI
Honorary
§ 05 Experienceالخبرة
Research and policy work on the Yemen conflict, Lebanon, and political instability across the Middle East & North Africa.
Selected positions. Crisis analysis, field research, and academic teaching — across humanitarian, policy, and university settings.
2023 — 2025
Crisis Analyst — Mercy Corps
Humanitarian
2023 — 2025
Yemen Researcher — Center for Information Resilience
Research
2024
Development Analyst — Yemen Policy Center
Policy
2023 — 24, 2026
Research Assistant — Dr. Sebastian Vallejo Vera, Western
Academic
2020 — 2022
Crisis Analyst — Mercy Corps
Humanitarian
§ 06 Skills & Trainingالمهارات
Languages, methods, and selected workshops.
Mixed-methods training across quantitative, qualitative, and geospatial work.
Languages
Arabic native · English advanced · French beginner · Spanish beginner
Statistical & GIS
R · Python · Stata · QGIS · ArcMap
Software
NVivo · Power BI · Adobe Illustrator · LaTeX · WordPress · Google Suite · MS Office
Selected Certificates
Public Policy Analysis (LSE) · Google Project Management · New Generation of Social Scientists Fellowship (ACSS)
Selected Conferences & Workshops
American Political Science Association Annual Meeting2025
Political Science Graduate Student Association Conference2026
MENA Research Group Workshop Series, APSA2025
Research on Teaching and Learning Symposium2025
Time Series Theories & Applications Workshop2025
Teaching in the Canadian Classroom Program2025
Geospatial Analysis in Social Sciences2024
Measurement of Dynamic Latent Concepts2024
Fall Perspectives on Teaching Conference2023–25
TA Day: Graduate Student Conference on Teaching2024
§ 07 Collaborateتواصل
Open to collaborations, consultations, and conversations about new work.
Get in touch.
I'm particularly interested in collaborations on crisis analysis, humanitarian research, Yemen and MENA conflict dynamics, rebel governance, and survey methodology for sensitive political topics. I also take on short consulting and commentary engagements with humanitarian, policy, and media organizations seeking Yemen and MENA expertise.